Mitigating panic buying behavior in the epidemic: An evolutionary game perspective

The panic buying behavior under public health emergencies will lead to many adverse consequences, such as material waste, price fluctuation and uneven distribution of epidemic prevention materials, which will pose a threat to the social stability and economic development. In this paper, we construct a tripartite game model to explore the strategic choices of the public, merchants and the government in order to effectively respond to the panic buying behavior in the epidemic. The results demonstrate that: (1) Eight evolutionary stable strategies emerge in the panic buying events. The worst scenario can be improved by adjusting some relevant parameters. (2) The probability of the public choosing the strategy of “not involving in panic buying” depends on the potential benefits and losses of snapping up, rather than the extent of price rising. (3) The probability of merchants choosing the strategy of “not bid up price” depends on the intangible benefits. (4) The probability of the government choosing the strategy of “active supervision” depends on the supervision costs and government credibility, rather than the amount of fines. In addition, strategic suggestions to mitigate panic buying behavior are put forward from the perspective of each stakeholder.     

基于关键节点与关键路径的专利集群网络演进研究

专利作为技术和知识的重要载体，是研究技术演进和产业发展的重要信息源。目前缺乏针对专利集群网络中关键节点与关键路径中节点的比较分析和技术知识挖掘。构建基于关键节点和关键路径的专利集群网络演进模型，从两个层面综合分析技术演进特征。检索德温特数据库(Derwent Innovation Index)得到碳化硅肖特基势垒二极管（SiC-SBD）相关专利作为实证数据，时间跨度为1986-2017年。结果表明，SiC-SBD专利集群网络经历了萌芽期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期，其中，萌芽期专利主要涉及基础技术，成长期为器件结构，以完善器件结构、改进二极管性能为主要研究方向。近年来SiC-SBD专利年增长率下降，技术发展速度放缓，专利价值更多体现在其商业价值上。SiC-SBD专利集群网络关键节点与关键路径中节点重合度较高，核心专利识别可通过多视角分析得到。通过关键节点与关键路径分析专利集群网络演进过程，有助于更全面呈现技术演进过程，为决策者识别核心专利、预测技术发展提供参考。     

An evolutionary complex systems perspective on urban health

Deliberations about how to govern complex problems of urban health and wellbeing sustainably have often been implicitly biased by ideas such as being ‘human-scale’ or ‘people-centered.’ With increasing urban populations and increasing urban system interconnectivity, many cities have transformed into city regions or clusters, and the external effects of urban growth are carried mainly by the marginalized and the environment putting urban health increasingly at risk. Here we address the question of why human societies have not been better at collectively adapting to the challenges of urbanization and global environmental change? We build a theoretical framework of multi-level selection, complex systems evolution, and governance, following which we then present ‘human-scale’ and ‘people-centered’ ideas of urban development as expressions of two types of socio-political organization with different degrees of self-organization. We found several reasons for which the maladies of current urban development emerged and the seeming inability to resolve them. First, urban systems became increasingly interconnected and evolved into ultrasocial superorganisms, displaying preference to sustain themselves as a whole rather than their subordinates. Second, the difference in scaling effects between the biological and the social network contributed to the mismatch between rapid urban growth and slow adaptation. Furthermore, institutions of decreased variety reinforce themselves and become dominant, creating a positive feedback mechanism and promoting invasive and exploitative exponential growth, but they also reduce the creativity and resilience of urban systems. We also found that both the “human-scale” and the “people-centered” approaches acknowledge the exponential growth and decreasing variety in urban systems, and advocate for correcting the mismatches. To incorporate people's needs and values for long-term, truly sustainable urban health governance, we recommend combining the self-organizing, evolutionary feature of “human-scale” and the coordinative, political feature of “people-centeredness.”     

应对新冠疫情冲击的货币政策国际协调*

新冠疫情冲击了世界经济增长和金融市场稳定。很多国家推出极度宽松货币政策应对危机。从经典货币政策国际协调的博弈理论来看，应对本次疫情冲击的各国货币政策协调性不足，“以邻为壑”的非合作均衡效果明显。为数不多的货币政策协调也存在执行力不足、深度与广度不够、新兴市场国家话语权低等问题。在世界经济紧密联系、货币政策溢出效应加强的背景下，为了应对疫情冲击，国际组织需要创设协议和合作剩余分配机制，寻找货币政策刺激效果和防止国际资产泡沫之间的平衡，加强政策沟通和信息共享，提高新兴市场国家话语权，建设有效的应对危机的货币政策国际协调机制。中国应在“一带一路”倡议的框架下建立长期货币政策协调机制，在现有的IMF和G20等平台上发挥发达国家与新兴市场国家之间的协调桥梁作用，通过持续开展央行间技术性合作等措施参与和推进协调进程。     

政府随机审计的动态博弈模型及政策启示

本文在一个三阶段动态博弈框架下，对政府随机审计过程中的政府审计机关与政府审计对象以及国家与政府审计对象之间的动态博弈特征进行了分析。分析结果显示：政府审计机关与政府审计对象之间存在一个纯策略纳什均衡，而国家和政府审计对象之间存在一个混合策略纳什均衡。政府审计对象接受国家实质性审计的概率是政府审计对象被政府机关审计发现违规或不作为后的惩罚倍数的单调递减函数，而政府审计对象的违规或不作为的概率分别是政府审计对象被政府机关审计发现违规或不作为后的惩罚倍数和政府审计对象的应尽义务或责任的单调递减函数，却是政府审计机关审计行为成本的单调递增函数。同时，结合研究结论和中国政府审计全覆盖的现实，给出了一些政策建议。     

国家科技创新能力时空差异性评价

科技创新规模扩张和科技创新效率提升是增强国家科技创新能力的两条关键途径。基于现有研究鲜有结合科技创新规模和科技创新效率开展国家科技创新能力评价的现状，采用因子分析法，系统筛选国家科技创新规模影响因素，并结合科技创新效率影响因素，完善国家科技创新能力评价指标体系，通过构建DEA Malmquist指数模型，评价不同时期国家科技创新效率变化指数，以及中国与全球10个国家科技创新能力的时空差异性。研究表明，R&D投入强度、R&D研究人员、专利申请量、科技期刊文章数、高科技产品出口额占制成品出口总额的百分比、科技创新效率是影响国家科技创新能力的关键指标；1991-2014年中国科技创新能力水平呈指数增长态势，有力提升了国家科技实力；全球10个国家科技创新能力水平除日本出现一定波动外，其余九国整体呈小幅递增态势。     

企业主流与新流创新演进机理研究

激烈的市场竞争使人们意识到，企业既需要维持创新发展优势而抢占主流市场，又需要创造新的企业发展优势而赢取未来主流市场。着眼于这一关键任务，实现主流与新流创新演进成为企业持续发展的重点。因此，基于生物进化理论、企业进化理论和企业DNA理论，提出主流与新流创新演进经过了生成、变异、选择、协同阶段。深入研究主流与新流创新的生成、变异、选择、协同机理，并与企业创新发展实践相结合，为企业未来主流创新提供具体路径指导。     

An evolutionary Cournot oligopoly model with imitators and perfect foresight best responders

We consider the competition among quantity setting players in a linear evolutionary environment. To set their outputs, players adopt, alternatively, the best response rule having perfect foresight or an imitative rule. Players are allowed to change their behavior through an evolutionary mechanism according to which the rule with better performance will attract more followers. The relevant stationary state of the model describes a scenario where players produce at the Cournot‐Nash level. Due to the presence of imitative behavior, we find that the number of players and implementation costs, needed to the best response exploitation, have an ambiguous role in determining the stability properties of the equilibrium and double stability thresholds can be observed. Differently, the role of the intensity of choice, representing the evolutionary propensity to switch to the most profitable rule, has a destabilizing role, in line with the common occurrence in evolutionary models. The global analysis of the model reveals that increasing values of the intensity of choice parameter determine increasing dynamic complexities for the internal attractor representing a population where both decision mechanisms coexist.